![]() ![]() In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean ( Fig. Synopsis: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 yearsĮNSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory.Tend to reach their maximum strength during October - February.On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month.Ĭlick on the for more information on each figure.Įl Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. 1) has just been updated, while the model-based forecasts (Figs. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast (Fig. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. ![]() There can be several reasons for differences. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. Figures 1 and 3 (the official CPC ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based IRI ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. ![]()
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